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What’s the Future of Terrorism? Especially Lone Wolf Terrorists and How to Pre-detect them?

With NATO support, The Millennium Project – a global think tank – in collaboration with the FIRS2T Group, Israel brought together futurists, security experts and S&T developers from 14 countries to explore potential future forms of terrorism and what could help  to pre-detect its sources and reduce the threats. 
WASHINGTON, DC (NEWSWIRE.COM) MAY 3, 2017 Artificial intelligence, synthetic biology and other emerging technologies will give individuals extraordinary power; including to lone wolf terrorists. Last July, 25 futurists, security experts, and S&T developers from 14 countries met for several days near Washington, D.C. to share their research, insights, and identify new technologies and policies to address the potential threats from far more destructive terrorists in the future than today. Their presentations are available on The Millennium Project’s website at: http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/NATO-PredetectionWorkshop.html.
After the workshop, the participants were asked to further reflect and contribute to a publication in the NATO Science for Peace and Security Program. The resulted book, Identification of Potential Terrorists and Adversary Planning: Emerging Technologies and New Counter-Terror Strategies has 16 chapters (170 pages) addressing themes ranging from changing security paradigm to speculations about new technologies and their potential uses both for increasing threats as well as to help eventual pre-detection of mal-intent. “To my mind,” writes Jamie Shea, Deputy Assistant Secretary-General of NATO, “this publication is one of the best studies of modern terrorism and what to do about it that we have at our disposal.”
The concluding chapter calls for a new strategic triad for finding such terrorists and preventing their actions by: 1) technological means and administrative measures developed and managed by the state; 2) education and public health means to reduce the number of such potential individuals; and 3) new roles for the general public for early detection of such individuals.
Some examples of means to prevent future terrorists presented are:
•    Sensors that collect biometric and other data connected by mesh networks and artificial intelligence early warning systems
•    Robot security guards
•    Artificial intelligence applied to social media
•    DNA analysis 
•    Brain imaging (fMRI)
•    Micro-drones
•    New kinds of firewalls and cyber traps
•    Improved public reporting
•    Mandatory reporting of relevant mental and physiological examinations

Since the use of these and other technologies discussed would cause public outrage, participants thought public discussions leading to a new “social contract” between the people and the government would be necessary. Some elements to be considered in this new social contract are:
•    Rights and responsibilities of information collection, analysis, and distribution by and among government, international organizations, private sector, and citizens;
•    Under what circumstances should what kind of citizen information be shared by their government with other governments and international organizations;
•    Early detection by the public could be enhanced by citizens’ use or access to government and/or private sector technical means. If so, under what conditions and training would that be legitimate;
•    Education systems that explicitly promote tolerance and a culture of peace.
“During the Cold War the public had no role in deterrence, but now, and increasingly in the future, the public could be on the front line of detecting lone wolves before they attack,” says Jerome Glenn, CEO of The Millennium Project.  
Copies of Identification of Potential Terrorists and Adversary Planning: Emerging Technologies and New Counter-Terror Strategies, edited by Theodore J. Gordon, Elizabeth Florescu, Jerome C. Glenn, and Yair Sharan ISBN 978-1-61499-747-4 can be ordered from IOS Press http://www.iospress.nl/book/identification-of-potential-terrorists-and-adversary-planning/ or Individual chapters from info@millennium-project.org. 

 

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